Evaluation of rainfall forecasts combining GNSS precipitable water vapor with ground and remote sensing meteorological variables in a neural network approach

In this study, an experiment aimed to integrate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) atmospheric data with meteorological data into a neural network system is performed. Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) estimates derived from GNSS are combined with surface pressure, surface temperature and relative humidity obtained continuously from ground-based meteorological stations. The work aims to develop a methodology to forecast short-term intense rainfall. Hence, all the data is sampled at one hour interval. A continuous time series of 3 years of GNSS data from one station in Lisbon, Portugal, is processed. Meteorological data from a nearby meteorological station are collected. Remote sensing data of cloud top from SEVIRI is used, providing collocated data also on an hourly basis. A 3 year time series of hourly accumulated precipitation data are also available for evaluation of the neural network results. In previous studies, it was found that time varying PWV is correlated with rainfall, with a strong increase of PWV peaking just before intense rainfall, and with a strong decrease afterwards. However, a significant amount of false positives was found, meaning that the evolution of PWV does not contain enough information to infer future rain. In this work a multilayer fitting network is used to process the GNSS and meteorological data inputs in order to estimate the target outputs, given by the hourly precipitation. It is found that the combination of GNSS data and meteorological variables processed by neural network improves the detection of heavy rainfall events and reduces the number of false positives.