Sales forecasting models in the fresh food supply chain

We address the problem of supply chain management for a set of fresh and highly perishable products. Our activity mainly concerns forecasting sales. The study involves 19 retailers (small and medium size stores) and a set of 156 different fresh products. The available data is made of three year sales for each store from 2011 to 2013. The forecasting activity started from a pre-processing analysis to identify seasonality, cycle and trend components, and data filtering to remove noise. Moreover, we performed a statistical analysis to estimate the impact of prices and promotions on sales and customers' behaviour. The filtered data is used as input for a forecasting algorithm which is designed to be interactive for the user. The latter is asked to specify ID store, items, training set and planning horizon, and the algorithm provides sales forecasting. We used ARIMA, ARIMAX and transfer function models in which the value of parameters ranges in predefined intervals. The best setting of these parameters is chosen via a two-step analysis, the first based on well-known indicators of information entropy and parsimony, and the second based on standard statistical indicators. The exogenous components of the forecasting models take the impact of prices into account. Quality and accuracy of forecasting are evaluated and compared on a set of real data and some examples are reported.