Rate equation leading to hype-type evolution curves: a mathematical approach in view of analysing technology development
The theoretical understanding of Gartner's "hype curve" is an interesting open question in deciding the strategic actions to adopt in presence of an incoming technology. In order to describe the hype behaviour quantitatively, we propose a mathematical approach based on a rate equation, similar to that used to describe quantum level transitions. The model is able to describe the hype curve evolution in many relevant conditions, which can be associated to various market parameters.